Saturday, November 22, 2008

Problems of Indian Economy

I think India has lots of potential to grow. But I do feel that India faces lots of hurdles too. The following are some pain points of Indian Economy. Few things to be noted before we go through the issues point by point are:
1. Some of these issues might be applicable to other nations as well(Including developed nations like US and countries in Western Europe).
2. I am looking at the economy from a long term(15 to 20 years) perspective. But as some famous economist said "In the long term everybody dies!!". So short term matters very much too. (and sometimes short term is much more important than the long term, depending upon your current state in life.). After all if you can keep making profits in the short term in the long term you will be well off too!! But this article does not concentrate about the prospects of the Indian economy in the short term(I mean next 5 years).
3. I did think through the following issues I am going to mention. But they might look random as I did not spend time on how to present them with a continuous flow.

Now coming to the actual problems:
Absence of the rule of law: In India it is a common occurence for rowdies and mafia dons to have control in many of the core businesses. The reason this is bad is it affects the core of capitalism. One important thing that is necessary for capitalism to survive is the rule of law. With out laws capitalism would become pretty destructive. Just as an example say there is a pharmaceutical company that comes up with some new medication. If there is no rule of law then the medicine would not be properly tested. Whichever company has the political clout would be able to release its drugs but the company that did the real research and development and testing, if it lacked political clout, would not be able to release its drug. That is not development. In fact that is making the life of people worse. I can give examples like this in every industry. But bottom line is with out the rule of law, in short term, companies with political/mafia power wins but in the long term these companies are detrimental for the growth of the economy.

Natural resources: In the long term the resources that matter are NOT petrol, gold, diamond etc.(But they don't hurt!! having them is good!!). But what matters in the long term is resources like clean water, clean air, fertile soil, good ecosystem etc. Problem with India today is more importance is given to resources like gold, diamond etc but people don't pay much attention to water, air, earth etc. If India keeps up with its current levels of unhealthy pollution then the future of our population is bleak(our food security is threatened). Which also means the future of our economy is bleak. The level of pollution in India in some sense is much worse than the developed world. After all pollution just does not mean carbon dioxide(developed world produces more of this) but it also includes how you take care of water(I remember reading lots of textile companies in India that donot treat their waste properly and just discharge them to water), how you take care of soil(deforestation is one reason because of which fertile top soil is washed away), how you take care of air etc. And global warming(assuming it is not a lie as claimed by some republicans) is only going to make things worse. This is a big threat for the entire world population.

Fair Accounting: Nobody knows how much one can trust the balance sheet of Indian companies. Remember not all companies are bad apples. But there are bound to be some. After all even in US with all the regulations there were companies like Enron. So I would not be surprised if there are a bunch of companies in India reporting false numbers. The problem is until the company fails on one of its financial commitments nobody knows something is wrong.So until the company is pretty close to bankruptcy people would think that the company is doing fine based upon the financial reports.

This is by no means exhaustive. As I mentioned earlier I did not spend time on the flow of this article. So it might look random. But I do feel one should consider these issues when evaluating the long term growth rate of Indian economy.

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